Qube’s Probabilistic Duration Model for Methane Emissions
The probabilistic duration model (PDM) improves emission event bounding that accounts for times we are “blind” to emissions due to wind condition.
When we design deployments, we optimize device placement around prevailing local wind patterns. And because wind direction tends to vary over time, most sources achieve good downwind coverage over longer timescales. But in the short term, winds can shift in unfavorable directions, temporarily pointing the plume away from the network of sensors.
The PDM approach starts by calculating source coverage — essentially whether a sensor is downwind of each source at every moment in time. Once we know coverage, we can examine periods when methane readings drop and evaluate whether those dips coincide with periods of reduced coverage. Given high enough probability, we can fill in short gaps and extend emissions.
For more insights into how Qube Technologies is driving emissions reduction, explore our expert insights, white papers, case studies or reach out directly.